What Does the Future Hold for Páramo Plants? A Modelling Approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
Understanding the effects of climate change on tropicalpine biota remains a scientific challenge today. The Andean páramo is largest and most diverse biogeographical region in world, also one threatened as it prone to accelerated environmental changes. My goal was predict changes distribution ranges highly endemic flora mid-term (50 years). First, I predicted plant species under novel climates considering dispersal constraints. Second, looked for consensus areas losses vs. gains páramo, expecting identify gradient increasing relative richness with elevation over time. Last, evaluated behavior regarding their climatic refugia since Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) establish if they likely remain or transcend them. Based VegParamo vegetation data CHELSA bioclimatic information, performed models 664 pool, that were then contrasted between present, future (2070) past (LGM). About 8.3% entire pool (55 species) be extirpated from by 2070, including 22 endemics. On average, plants gained 15.52% additional 2070 (18.81% endemics). Models area northern páramos Colombia Venezuela, highest eastern Ecuadorian Peruvian mountains. Moreover, more pronounced at high elevations, suggesting colonization process toward summits. Finally, only 21.41% species’ coincided LGM (19.75% endemics), found southern Ecuador Peru. This study pioneer predicting shifts overall provides solid bases support research adaptation strategies tropical Andes.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2296-701X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2022.896387